If you listen very carefully, above the din of Rev. Jeremiah Wright's nonsensical theatrical performances, the distant sound of war drums in the Persian Gulf are growing increasingly audible.
Two weeks ago, when Gen. Petraeus and Amb. Crocker appeared before Congress, they testified that Iran had greatly accelerated its delivery of arms to the Shiite Mahdi Army. Based on the regional media reports, the volume of such Iranian assistance, organized by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, has reached levels hitherto unseen since Iran launched its proxy war against the U.S. in Iraq in support of Moqtada Al Sadr's Mahdi forces.
Wherever you are on the political spectrum, this increasingly overt Iranian enterprise is taking a growing toll on American troops in Iraq -- both in Baghdad's Sadr City and in the southern city of Basra. Even more lethal IEDs, rockets, mortars and missiles are finding their way into the Mahdi Army's hands.
Petraeus, nominated by George Bush to replace Adm. Fallon as CENTCOM Commander, appears to be orchestrating a public relations and military campaign to convince Iran that its actions are reaching dangerous levels that could lead to a military showdown with the U.S. The Pentagon's recent announcement that it was sending a second aircraft carrier task force into the Persian Gulf (really nothing more than swap of the existing Persian Gulf task force) coupled with unnamed Pentagon sources warning that the U.S. would not let its situation in Iraq preclude it from launching retaliatory strikes against Iran's Revolutionary Guard bases inside Iran, represents a major escalation of tensions.
One should not pass this off as mere posturing. There is a new found resolution in the Pentagon (music to the ears of Dick Cheney) to prevent Iran from empowering the Mahdi Army to such a degree that Moqtada Al Sadr will feel emboldened to formally break his self-imposed cease fire and launch an all out assault on the Green Zone and the U.S. forward bases circumventing Sadr City. Although fighting has dangerously escalated in recent days, Moqtada has so far resisted launching an all out attack on Iraqi government and U.S. surge forces. But the situation is very fluid and the cease fire barely holding.
Additionally, Iran's mosquito speed boats have been increasing their harrassment of U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf. The cat and mouse game is becoming an increasingly regular occurrence, and but for the forbearance of local U.S. naval commanders, these provocations have not resulted in an exchange of fire with Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces that are testing American intent.
So what is Iran up to here? And what is the White House up to here, as well?
First, the vaunted propaganda machine extolling the virtues of the surge's success would come under greater scrutiny, a fact that would not serve the McCain campaign well. Iran has no particular interest in facilitating a McCain election given McCain's vociferous enmity toward the regime.
Second, Iran's leaders do not want to provide any early military victory to opponents of the Mahdi Army, including Iraq's PM Maliki and his allies who are opponents of Moqtada Al Sadr.
Third, Iran has greatly accelerated its uranium enrichment program, declaring that it has recently added an additional 6,000 centrifuges to its existing enrichment cascade of 3,000 centrifuges. Iran's ability to accelerate this cascade constitutes an accelerated and inexorable march toward the development of weapons grade enriched uranium. This development alone has surprised the intel agencies, whose November National Intelligence Estimate did not have "high confidence" that Iran would technologically be able this year to greatly accelerated its uranium enrichment program due to technical deficiencies. Consequently, Iran continues to leverage pressure against the U.S. in Iraq as a way of reducing pressure on its nuclear program.
Fourth, UN Security Council and US unilateral economic sanctions are taking their toll on Iran's economy. Increased oil revenues have failed to stem reversals in Iran's economic fortune. Here again, Tehran wants to leverage its involvement in Iraq to reduce these economic sanctions which are undermining popular support for President Ahmadinejad. It is not lost on Tehran's power centers that Iran will hold presidential elections in 2009, and nothing would serve Ahmadinejad more in his weakened internal position than to pick a fight with the Great Satan. It is always hard to tell who is doing what inside Iran's power structure, but you can be sure that the US figures mightily failed in their calculations.
Finally, Washington clearly would like to find a way to stop Iran's nuclear program. A Persian Gulf miscalculation, or a rapidly deteriorating military situation inside Iraq, could provide, however flimsy, a pretext to launch an attack on Iran nuclear installations
Whichever side blinks first, there is little doubt that Washington is escalating its saber rattling against Iran as Iran accelerates its support for the Mahdi Army which is taking a growing toll of American lives. Gen. Petraeus is determined to send a strong signal to Tehran to knock it off. The question is whether Iran will want to avoid a confrontation with the Bush administration or encourage one. Only time will tell, but the trip-wire ingredients are very much now in their dangerous place.
Given recent events in Iraq, within the labyrinth of Iranian political calculations, there is a strong possibility that its leadership may prefer to risk an overt military confrontation with Washington now. Counterintuitive you say... well, this is, after all, the Middle East and Iran's president may have a Persian parochial interest in provoking Washington now, rather than wait for it to happen during the run-up to his re-election campaign after a new president is elected in the US.