After years of campaigning (and endlessly repeated stump speeches and attack ads), the 2012 presidential election has finally arrived. Both President Obama and Governor Romney pulled out all the stops in the final days of their campaigns. Obama rallied his supporters in Iowa on the eve of the election, capping a whirlwind final day during which he got a bit of help from notable friends. Meanwhile, Romney stirred up a crowd of his staunch supporters in New Hampshire in the hours before the polls opened.
With votes already being cast (and the voting irregularities already beginning), the candidates and voters alike just have to wait for the results to come in. Yes, both sides will continue to canvas and call potential voters late into the evening but it's largely a waiting game. How close will those swing states be? Are Nate Silver's numbers correct?
But the results that may tell us THE result are already in: Alabama wins, Redskins lose and the Lakers are not the reigning NBA champions.
While statistical methods of predicting the outcomes of the elections are fine for some folks, others want a narrative to go along with their information. Well, for those who like a good yarn, here are three sports "laws" that have been quite dependable about predicting the outcome of the presidential election through the years.
Alabama vs. LSU
The outcome of the Alabama-LSU rivalry match as been on the money in predicting presidential elections since 1984. If the Crimson Tide roll to victory, then a democrat takes (or holds) the White House. If LSU comes out on top, then it'll be a grand election night for the GOP. Take a look at recent years:
1984
LSU 16, Alabama 14
Ronald Reagan (R) defeated Walter Mondale (D).
1988
LSU 19, Alabama 18
George H.W. Bush (R) defeated Michael Dukakis (D)
1992
Alabama 31, LSU 11
Bill Clinton (D) defeated George H.W. Bush (R)
1996
Alabama 26, LSU 0
Clinton (D) defeated Bob Dole (R)
2000
LSU 30, Alabama 28
George W. Bush (R) defeated Al Gore (D)
2004
LSU 26, Alabama 10
George W. Bush (R) defeated John Kerry (D).
2008
Alabama 27, LSU 21
Barack Obama (D) defeated John McCain (R)
Alabama-LSU Prediction: Obama Wins in 2012
The Lakers Law
Another sports predictor for the presidency is the so-called "Lakers Law." According to this very reliable election predictor, the Republicans win the presidency in any year that the Lakers reach the NBA Finals. The Lakers have reached the Finals nine times during an election year (1952, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004 and 2008) and this law held true for the first eight of those trips. In 2008, the Lakers won the Western Conference and lost to the Boston Celtics in the Finals, but Obama defeated John McCain.
1952
Minneapolis Lakers defeated New York Knicks In NBA Finals
Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) defeats Adlai Stevenson (D)
1968
Boston Celtics defeated Los Angeles Lakers In NBA Finals
Richard Nixon (R) defeated Hubert Humphrey (D)
1972
Los Angeles Lakers defeated New York Knicks In NBA Finals
Richard Nixon (R) defeated George McGovern (D)
1980
Los Angeles Lakers defeated Philadelphia 76ers In NBA Finals
Ronald Reagan (R) defeated Jimmy Carter (D)
1984
Boston Celtics defeated Los Angeles Lakers In NBA Finals
Ronald Reagan (R) defeated Walter Mondale (D)
1988
Los Angeles Lakers defeated Detroit Piston In NBA Finals
George H.W. Bush (R) defeated Michael Dukakis (D)
2000
Los Angeles Lakers defeated Indiana Pacers In NBA Finals
George W. Bush (R) defeated Al Gore (D)
2004
Detroit Pistons defeated Los Angeles Lakers In NBA Finals
George W. Bush (R) defeated John Kerry (D)
2008
Boston Celtics defeated Los Angeles Lakers In NBA Finals
Barack Obama (D) defeated John McCain (R)*
2012
The Lakers did not reach the NBA Finals as the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder competed for the title.
Lakers Law Prediction: Obama wins in 2012
The Redskins Rule
While the "Lakers Law" and the "Alabama-LSU Rivalry" both have adherents, the "Redskins Rule" is the gold standard of sports election predictors. This rule popularized by Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau is so official it even has its own Wikipedia page. According to the rule, the result of the final Washington Redskins home game before the election determines the winner. If the Skins lose at home then the incumbent party is ousted. If the Skins win in Washington then the incumbent party retains the presidency.
“I was shocked to see it lined up exactly right, that whenever the Redskins won their last home game prior to the presidential election, the incumbent party retained the White House, and whenever the Redskins lost their last home game prior to the election, the out-of-power party won the White House,” Hirdt recently told ESPN, describing the discovery of the rule before the 2000 election.
Playing in their final home game before the 2012 election, the Redskins were defeated at home by the Carolina Panthers, 21-13. As noted by the Detroit Free Press, this rule has only failed once since 1937 (when the franchise moved to Washington).
Redskins Rule Prediction: Romney Wins in 2012
Not surprisingly, even the sports predictors see the 2012 election being a close race, with perhaps a slight edge to the incumbent. For those of you who don't want to leave the fate of the nation to the Redskins, Lakers or the Crimson Tide, please go out and vote.
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