As anti-government violence escalates in Egypt, jihadists are mounting more brazen attacks. With simultaneous deadly strikes on several military outposts in Sinai and the assassination of Egypt's top public prosecutor, Hisham Barakat, jihadists' want to create the perception of possessing the upper hand against a government under siege from all sides. Despite recent setbacks, the government of President Abdel Fata al-Sisi remains firmly in control.
Full-scale conflict in Sinai has witnessed increasing levels of effectiveness and sophistication by insurgents claiming loyalty to Islamic State. However, government forces possess appropriate training and top U.S. weaponry, including airpower, to confront the threat. Furthermore, active Israeli support in the Sinai campaign, including intelligence and drones, bolsters their position.
Diplomatically, Sisi has skillfully exploited Egypt's position as a cornerstone for broader regional security for allies in the region and beyond. Continuous economic assistance from Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait has reinforced Sisi's standing. For them, he is a bulwark against sworn enemies, including the Muslim Brotherhood, jihadists and Iranian regional expansionism. Sisi has also confronted jihadists in Libya and provided naval and air support to the Saudi-led campaign against Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. Egypt remains a key component in the broader regional Sunni bloc led by the Gulf states, which also largely dominates the Arab League.
Despite regular criticism on human rights, the U.S. and European Union also consider Sisi an indispensable ally in a turbulent region. For now, security interests trump democracy promotion. The U.S. restored full military aid to Egypt in early 2015. Furthermore, Sisi's recent trip to Germany confirmed his prized status in Europe. With thousands arriving on Europe's southern shores through a divided, war-torn Libya, Egypt remains a much-needed linchpin of stability in North Africa.
Politically, Sisi has effectively neutralized and contained his opponents, primarily the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), through swift and comprehensive crackdowns and arrests. Most recently, 13 leading MB members were killed in a police raid. In response, it called its members to rise in revolt but Sisi has quashed any form of dissent, particularly street protests.
This policy of relentless pursuit has continued in the courts through extensive, legally flawed, and drawn-out trials designed to delegitimize the MB. After the recent assassination of Barakat, who as prosecutor referred thousands of Islamists to trial, Sisi vowed to enact further legal changes allowing death sentences to be implemented more rapidly. It was directed at jihadists, the MB and all other "enemies of the state". Hundreds of MB members are already on death row, including former president Mohammed Morsi. Presently, Sisi has most of his opponents exactly where he wants them.
However, Egypt still remains a polarized society. To his opponents, Morsi and company are yesterday's news and simply getting their due justice. They represent the political chaos and economic turbulence that followed Mubarak's ouster in January 2011. Under Sisi, general stability has been restored placating the arguably silent majority that simply wants to move on. Since Morsi's ouster in July 2013, the general tide has currently turned against the MB in Egypt and the broader region.
To a large extent, it appears that more than four years since the toppling of President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt has gone full circle. Just three years ago, Mohamed Morsi was heralded as Egypt's first democratically elected president. Today, Sisi celebrates two years since ousting Morsi and his first anniversary as Egyptian president.
Despite offsetting the MB for now, Sisi will exercise constant caution and vigilance. The MB is down but not out. Its potential for resurgence must not be underestimated. As a movement born and bred in opposition, it will continue to survive, and possibly thrive, accordingly. It has traditionally demonstrated enormous resilience, impressive organizational skills and a loyal support base. To an extent, it has operated as a state within a state. Primary among its regular activities is the administration of social services to Egypt's poor. Despite Morsi's removal, the MB retains an extensive support network at home, in the region and beyond. As the pioneers of modern political Islam, Egypt's MB continues to serve as the inspiration to many like-minded groups in the Middle East, North Africa and abroad.
Furthermore, despite his death sentence, Morsi remains defiant and unrepentant. For the MB's supporters and sympathizers, he represents a Nelson Mandela-like figure. In death, he would become a martyr galvanizing the movement's base. This begs the question whether Morsi's death sentence is simply a ploy. Dragging Morsi's case throughout the appellate process allows the government more time to further demonize him and the MB. Providing a last-minute clemency would benefit Sisi's image and enhance his credibility at home and abroad. WHAT ABOUT DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA?
Egyptian influence has traditionally played a central role as standard-bearer in the Arab world, whether it be Gamal Abdel Nasser's pan-Arabism, the political Islam of the Muslim Brotherhood, or cultural dominance through cinema and literature. Although the Arab Uprisings were sparked by a fruit vendor's self-immolation in Tunisia, it was Egypt's Tharir Square that caught the world's imagination and inspired Arab masses to rise up.
However, four years later the question becomes: what of democracy in the Arab world? In this respect, it is Tunisia gradually establishing the proper precedent while Egypt provides lessons in what not to do.
If by democracy one means Western liberalism, then it is not just about elections. It involves building the institutions of civil society and a political culture of inclusivity that evolves gradually over time. In this context, democracy in the Middle East has been largely neutered, except for Tunisia.
In Egypt, many political leaders including Morsi treated democracy as a zero-sum game and took a winner-take-all-approach. As Egypt's first democratically president, Morsi was responsible for providing firm foundations for the nation's future through outreach and consensus-building in a polarized society.
Instead, he shifted in an autocratic direction coupled by economic mismanagement and incompetence. With widespread public support, the military finally ousted Morsi. The desire to avoid a similar fate accelerated Tunisia's process of reconciliation between secularists and Islamists.
Despite a very rocky and at times violent start, Tunisia's democratic transformation is gradually bearing fruit. However, recent terrorist attacks on foreigner holiday-makers aimed at decimating the economically critical tourism industry is a reminder that international economic, political and security assistance remains essential to those struggling to progress in a democratic direction.