Cory Booker looks close to inevitable in New Jersey’s upcoming Senate primaries. Hillary Clinton remains the frontrunner in New Hampshire’s not-so-upcoming presidential primary. And Wendy Davis could face an uphill battle if she decides to run for Texas governor. This is HuffPollster for Wednesday, August 7, 2013.
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN NEW JERSEY SENATE RACE - Quinnipiac, in its first poll of likely primary voters: “Newark Mayor Cory Booker has a seemingly unbeatable lead in next week's Democratic Senate primary in New Jersey, with 54 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone has 17 percent of likely voters, with 15 percent for U.S. Rep. Rush Holt and 5 percent for State Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver. Only 8 percent of voters remain undecided....In a general election matchup, Booker tops Lonegan 54 - 29 percent among registered voters....’Unless the sky falls, Newark Mayor Cory Booker can start looking for a Washington apartment. He dominates both the Democratic primary and a general election against Steve Lonegan,’ [polling director Maurice] Carroll said. ” [Quinnipiac, HuffPollster chart]
CLINTON HAS EARLY 2016 LEAD IN NEW HAMPSHIRE; RUBIO AND CHRISTIE DOWN AMONG GOP - From the latest WMUR Granite State poll: “Most voters are far from making up their minds about who to vote for in the 2016 New Hampshire Primary. Hillary Clinton remains the clear favorite among New Hampshire Democrats but there is no clear leader among Republicans....’Rubio and Christie have seen their net favorability ratings drop significantly – Rubio’s has dropped 18 percentage points since April and Christie’s has dropped 14 percentage points since February,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. “These drops are indications that Rubio and Christie have alienated significant segments of the Republican base.” Paul and Jindal have seen the greatest increases in net favorability.” [UNH]
COULD WENDY DAVIS WIN TEXAS? - Texas State Sen. Wendy Davis said Monday that she planned either to seek reelection to her seat, or to make a run for governor. In a July PPP poll, the only survey to recently test her candidacy, her name recognition stood at 68 percent, double what it was in January, but she trailed Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott by 8 points. [PPP]
Nate Cohn says she doesn’t have a shot - “ I’m incautiously pessimistic. Texas is always tough for Democrats, but it's even tougher in 2014...The problem for Davis is that minority turnout drops in off year elections, like 2014. According to the Census, the 2010 Texas electorate was 65 percent white, compared to 58 percent white in last November’s presidential election. In a state where partisanship and race go hand-in-hand, that’s devastating for Democrats....Texas is an extremely red state. There aren’t many swing voters, since a majority of the state is either non-white or white evangelical Christian. Until the state’s demographics change, Democrats will need a candidate who can make big inroads into the state’s massive white, conservative base. That's especially true in a midterm election. And Wendy Davis isn’t that candidate.” [TNR]
The American Prospect’s Abby Rapoport is similarly bearish - “It might seem obvious that Davis, with the help of a major organizing effort and a galvanized set of supporters, should run statewide. The trouble is that she—just like any Democrat—is almost certain to lose....Democrats have lost every statewide race since 1994—a 100-race losing streak.....[W]omen in Texas vote much more Republican than their counterparts in other states. In 2010, according to a poll by the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune, around 54 percent of women supported Rick Perry. Nationally, women skew Democratic. Davis’s appeal comes in part out of hope that she could fire up the Democratic base and start turning around female voters. But there would still have to be a broad and long-term effort to get more people—particularly Latinos—into the voting booth.” [American Prospect
The Fix’s Sean Sullivan makes an argument for both sides - Why Davis should run: “She’s a household name right now, and is arguably never going to find a more natural jumping off point for a gubernatorial campaign....Davis has built a strong fundraising base....Julian Castro is waiting in the wings....Democrats think they can hold Davis’s seat.” Why she shouldn’t: “Democrats simply don’t do well in Texas gubernatorial races....[State attorney general Greg] Abbott is running for governor in 2014, and he’s the overwhelming favorite to win....Abbott’s millions of dollars have to go somewhere, and it’s a good bet that a healthy sum would be spent on ads brutalizing Davis’s image....Davis’s district is safe from a GOP push to reshape it.” [WaPost Part 1, Part 2]
GEORGIA’S GOVERNOR IN STRENGTHENED POSITION - PPP: “Nathan Deal's political standing has improved substantially since February, and he now looks like a more solid favorite for reelection. Deal's approval rating stands at a 44/32 spread. That +12 net approval is a 17 point improvement from February when just 36% of voters gave him good marks to 41% who disapproved. His numbers have improved with voters across the party spectrum, but particularly with independents who have gone from disapproving of him 31/43 to approving 51/28. Deal has substantial leads over three different potential Democratic challengers we tested against him.” [PPP]
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WEDNESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to more news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Most Americans don’t think Congress deserves a break. [Fox]
-Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton are the most polarizing 2016 picks. [Rasmussen, Part 1, Part 2]
-WNYC maps New York City’s voter turnout. [Tumblr, via @ForecasterEnten]
-An SEIU poll of NYC finds that Latino voters support Christine Quinn. [Crain’s New York]
-A study finds partisan bias in how the media covers political scandals. [The Monkey Cage]
-J. Walker Smith defends random sampling’s enduring value. [Kantar]
-Reid Wilson outlines his five rules of politics. [National Journal]
-NPR’s Andy Carvin maps his social network. [Slideshare]